Prime Minister Narendra Modi
has been at the helm of the affairs in New Delhi for over 10 months now &
it is time to review his foreign policy credentials. Many observers, wrongly, assumed
that Modi - without any governance experience at a national level – did not have
the wherewithal to manage foreign policy; surely, they must, now, be surprised
by his dexterity. That he was preparing for the role of PM for quite some time
was well known but, perhaps, his intention to go down in history as an
international statesman is a recent revelation. The foreign policy cell of the
BJP & the Vivekananda Foundation deserve credit for being silent actors
behind Modi’s foreign policy moves.
While Indian foreign policy
has been characterized by a long tradition of bipartisanship & continuity,
there is no denying Modi’s personal imprint:
getting 177 nations to support his plea at the UN (United Nations) to have
Jun 21st as the International Yoga day; & replacing “Panchsheel”
with “Panchamrit” - announced during the BJP national executive in Bangalore
recently being two pertinent examples. He has set a scorching pace for himself & the foreign policy
establishment & anyone falling foul has been side-lined; stars have been
lavishly rewarded too – S Jaishankar being appointed as the Foreign Secretary,
a few days before his retirement is a case in point.
Modi is more business-like
in his approach to foreign policy for he is known to dispense with diplomatic
niceties to arrive directly to the point. The economic thrust in his diplomacy
is equally palpable. Engaging the 30 million Indian diaspora- 7 million in the
Middle East, 3 Million in the US, 0.8 million in Canada, 0.4 million in UK, 0.3
million in Fiji & 0.2 million in Australia, being the largest blocks – the 2nd
largest in the world after the Chinese diaspora, to create a pressure group in
those respective countries to fulfil our foreign policy goals as well as
attract them to invest in their motherland is another feature of his robust
diplomacy. His rock star like meetings at such places & announcement to
merge the PIO (People of Indian Origin) & OCI (Overseas Citizen of India)
cards has therefore been welcomed. However, there is a wide delay between
announcements & implementation & Modi should therefore concentrate on
improving the efficiency of his government machinery to hasten his ideas into
reality.
Modi increasingly seems to
be modelling himself on Lee Kuan Yew – the former Singapore Prime Minister
who died recently – who applauded the “peaceful rise of India” in 2007 but
lamented in 2012 that it was a country of “unfulfilled greatness”. Modi definitely has taken the right steps to
resurrect India’s position that had dropped during the last 5 years courtesy policy
paralysis of the previous regime & a slowing economy. Much more needs to be
done & he seems on track, guided by the following strategic foreign policy tenets.
Neighbourhood
First Policy: Strengthen peace in the SAARC region
Modi started his innings as
PM, in May 2014, inviting the heads of government of all SAARC nations for his
swearing in. Perhaps, he appears to be guided by Vajpayee’s advice to incoming
foreign minister, Yashwant Sinha, in 2002, to focus on India’s neighbourhood, since
India’s aspirations of being a world leader would be met only after the country
emerges as a leader in the region. For details see the following link
Checkmate
China; Harness power of the quad: US, India, Australia, Japan
Modi has a great personal equation
with the Japanese PM Shinzo Abe; Modi is only one of the 3 leaders Abe follows
on twitter. Japan’s equation with China is fraught over concerns over the rise
of Chinese nationalism, dispute over the Sankaku islands & expansionist
designs - including domination over maritime routes. Japan is therefore seeking
an alternative to investments in China; Modi tapped this latent urge to help
drive a commitment of $35 billion investments into India over 5 years.
Undeterred by his own visa
refusal by the US - when he was Chief Minister of Gujarat - Modi earnestly tried to mend
relations with the US, on a downturn because of the differences over the
nuclear deal & the Devyani Khobragade case. He broke ice with Obama when he
visited New York last year for the UN meet & early this year achieved the
coup of getting Obama visit India a 2nd time – the first by any US President –
as the chief guest of the Republic Day parade – an honour denied to previous US
Presidents. The civil nuclear deal pushed through & the “vision document”
released at the end of the summit has the potential of putting India firmly in
the US camp. Modi must have betted, however, that just as Israel has the unabashed
support of the US in the Middle-East, Indian concurrence to be the “US pivot in
Asia” would give the BJP the leeway to pursue its Hindutva agenda. Obama’s
pronunciations at the Siri fort auditorium on secularism & “article 25 of
the constitution” clearly indicates that the US would be keen to partner India
but not at the expense of secularism.
Modi is the first PM to visit
Australia in 28 years; the last was PM Rajiv Gandhi in 1986. For the first time, Australian and Indian Prime Ministers
have made reciprocal visits in the same year- within 2 months. Needless to say this was long overdue especially
when Australia is an important player in the Nuclear Suppliers Group & perhaps
a key member in our own “string of pearls” strategy to circumvent China. Defence
co-operation agreement has therefore been inked between the two sides.
ACT
East: Strengthen Relationships with ASEAN
PM Narsimha Rao (1991-96) is
credited with the “Look East” foreign policy during his tenure which has
evolved into the “Act East” policy now. Modi visited Myanmar in Nov 2014 as part of
the multilateral engagement with the 18 member East Asia Summit (EAS) & the
10 member ASEAN- India summit. India was inducted into the forum in 2005 to
counter China but the former’s ambivalence to take an assertive position vis a
vis the latter has baffled other members. Modi did a course correction by mentioning
the need for universal respect for the “UN law of the seas” (UNCLOS) in South China Sea –
an oblique reference to China’s belligerence in the region & its
territorial & trade disputes thereof – that gladdened many hearts.
Modi intends to follow the Chinese example of “infrastructure
diplomacy” with “Industrial diplomacy”; Union Budget 2015 announced an SPV
(Special Purpose Vehicle) - to be housed in the commerce & Industry
ministry - with 51% private sector participation to set up Industrial zones in
Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia & Vietnam. This policy shall help Indian industry
to procure inputs at competitive rates & also ensure development of the
Indian North Eastern States with transport infrastructure through Kaladan
Multi-modal Transit and India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway which is
expected to be ready by 2016
The quick fire visits by the
President, Foreign Minister & the NSA to Vietnam & the defence
co-operation agreements signed thereof is but another vector to contain China.
Going forward, India should
accelerate efforts to join APEC (Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation) & work
towards an early conclusion of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) with ASEAN for greater trade gains
Strengthen
Maritime security
Countering the Chinese “Maritime
silk route” is critical for India’s security as much as to retain dominance in
the Indian Ocean. Therefore the visit to Seychelles, Mauritius & Sri Lanka
and establishment of listening stations. Getting a favourable govt. installed in
Maldives is an urgent need & perhaps is WIP (Work in Progress)
Visit to Fiji - the first by
an Indian PM after Indira Gandhi’s visit in 1981, 33 years ago - & meeting
the 12 leaders of Pacific island republics was as much an engagement with the
Indian diaspora in this region as much as it was to expand our strategic scan
into the Pacific. India should in the medium term be the lord of the seas from
the Persian Gulf to the Malacca straits - dominating the expanse from East
Africa to South East Asia.
Engage
BRICS, EU & Africa
The BRICS meet helped establish
the "New Development Bank" with a base capital of $50 billion –
contributed equally by the 5 promoters with equal voting rights – based in Shanghai,
as a counterweight to the Bretton Woods institutes - World Bank & the IMF. A
$100 billion Contingency Reserve Arrangement (CRA) was created to provide
additional liquidity protection to member countries during balance of payments problems.
China contributed 41%, Brazil, India, and Russia 18% each & South Africa 5%.
Just as 7 Latin American nations formed “Bank of the South” or BancoSur to fund regional
development and social protection which supplanted the influence of the Bretton
Woods institutes in Latin America, NDB has got the same transformational
potential.
Visit to Brazil gave Modi an
opportunity to engage with Latin American nations too.
Going forward Modi proceeds
to Europe & Canada this month. His interest in engaging the EU had a false
start since Brussels did not heed the Indian external affairs ministry’s
request for dates. Critics argue that the EU is under pressure from Italy due
to the unresolved Italian Marines issue. Modi, therefore, travels to France
& Germany to complete this leg his European engagement where his
pronunciations shall be keenly watched & dissected.
India – African Union Summit
in planned for October this year; Heads of all the 54 African nations are
invited to this Summit. China’s influence in Africa is substantial & this
meet is critical to raise our stakes in the “Dark Continent”.
Surprisingly no efforts have
been made till now to meet any of the GCC (Gulf Co-operation Council) members
who are responsible for India’s energy security.
Conclusion
Modi has succeeded in giving
a new dynamism to Indian Foreign policy for he has engaged with 94 countries
already. While the economic & security thrust of his diplomatic overtures
is palpable, he will be constrained by the contrasting policy goals of engaging
as well as containing a rampaging China. However, with lieutenants like Ajit
Doval as the NSA & Jaishankar as the Foreign secretary Modi can be expected
to achieve more strategic goals in the near future.
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